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A kaliforniai diótermés mennyisége és a diók mérete 1989-2000.
2000 California Walnut
Objective Measurement Survey Report

Released: September 1, 2000



WALNUT PRODUCTION FORECAST

The 2000 California walnut production is forecast at 245,000 tons, down 13 percent from 1999's production of 283,000 tons. This forecast is based on the Walnut Objective Measurement Survey. The Objective Measurement Survey was conducted August 1 through August 23, 2000. Hot weather in early August may have lowered quality. Harvest is just beginning in parts of Tulare County.

The 2000 Objective Measurement Survey utilized a total of 663 blocks with two sample trees per block. Survey data indicated an average nut set of 1,483, down 13 percent from 1999's average of 1,709. The Hartley nut set was down 16 percent; Serr, down 10 percent; Franquette, down 33 percent; Chandler, down 21 percent from 1999. Percent of sound kernels in-shell was 96.9 percent Statewide. In-shell weight per nut was 21.2 grams, while the average in-shell suture measurement was 32.2 millimeters. The average length in-shell was 38.2 millimeters.

Estimated nut sets, sizing measurements, average number of trees per acre, and estimated bearing acreage were used in the regression formulas.


California Walnuts Sept. Objective Forecast vs. Final Production


SURVEY HISTORY

The Walnut Objective Measurement Survey began in 1958 to fulfill industry needs for an accurate walnut production forecast prior to harvest. The original sample was chosen proportionally to county and variety of bearing acreage. With each succeeding year, additions and deletions have been made in the sample to adjust for acreage removed, new bearing acreage and refusals.


SAMPLING PROCEDURES

Once a block is randomly selected and permission is granted, two trees are randomly selected. An accessible branch is chosen which is 5 to 15 percent of the total cross-sectional area of the primary limbs and reachable with a twelve-foot ladder. Measurements are made on the trunk, each primary, and each split leading to and including the accessible branch. The sample tree and accessible branch are marked by a single tag.

On the accessible branch, every first of five nuts is picked for use in size and grade determinations. If available, at least ten nuts are harvested from the accessible branch for this purpose.

The following measurements are made on nuts selected for sizing:

1.    Weight of nut including hull.
2.    Width of shell at suture.
3.    Width of shell 90 degrees to suture line (cross-suture).
4.    Length of shell.
5.    Kernel grade.
6.    Weight of nut in-shell.


DATA RELIABILITY

The 80 percent confidence interval is from 224,000 tons to 266,000 tons. This means there is an 80 percent chance the 2000 production will fall within this range.


TABLE 1 -- California English Walnut Acreage, Production, Price And Value In-Shell
Year Bearing Acres a/ Total Production Per Bearing Acre Price Per Ton Total Value
Tons Dollars
1987 176,000 247,000 1.40 984.00 243,048,000
1988 177,000 209,000 1.18 922.00 192,698,000
1989 179,000 229,000 1.28 1,070.00 245,030,000
1990 181,000 227,000 1.25 1,040.00 236,080,000
1991 181,000 259,000 1.43 1,060.00 274,540,000
1992 178,000 203,000 1.14 1,410.00 286,230,000
1993 185,000 260,000 1.41 1,390.00 361,400,000
1994 189,000 232,000 1.23 1,030.00 238,960,000
1995 193,000 234,000 1.21 1,400.00 327,600,000
1996 192,000 208,000 1.08 1,580.00 328,640,000
1997 193,000 269,000 1.39 1,430.00 384,670,000
1998 193,000 227,000 1.18 1,050.00 238,350,000
1999 b/ 191,000 283,000 1.48 810.00 229,230,000
2000 c/ 193,000 245,000 1.27 --- ---
a/    Bearing years include plantings of the following: Chandler, Chico, Howard, Tulare (1995 & Earlier);
       50-55, 59-124, 4946, Amigo, Ashley, Bardoni, Cisco, Earhorn, Grove, Gustine, Honeycutt, Houston,
       Jensen, Lompoc, Marchetti, Nuggett, Payne, Pedro, Serr, Sunland, Tehama, Trinta, UCD 67-13, Vina,
       Westside (1994 and Earlier); Franquette, Franquette Scharsch, Mayette, Placentia, Poe,
       Willsons/Willsons Wonder, Woodland (1992 & Earlier); all other varieties not specified (1993 & Earlier).
b/    Price Per Ton and Total Value are July 1, 2000 preliminary data.
c/    Price Per Ton and Total Value preliminary data will be released July 2001.


1999 Walnut Bearing Acres by Variety


NOTE:  Pie chart percentages are based on the sum of grower acreage reported and do not add to 100 due to rounding.


TABLE 2 -- Walnut Objective Measurement Survey Data, By District
Measurement Year Coast 1/ Sacramento Valley 2/ San Joaquin Valley 3/ State 4/
In-Shell Weight (gm) 1989 19.7 22.0 21.4 21.5
1990 21.3 21.8 21.9 21.8
1991 20.7 22.1 19.6 20.8
1992 21.4 23.8 21.6 22.7
1993 23.5 23.7 21.7 22.9
1994 20.9 23.6 20.7 22.1
1995 19.8 21.3 20.3 20.8
1996 20.0 24.4 19.9 22.1
1997 20.9 23.7 22.2 22.9
1998 21.2 22.4 20.3 21.4
1999 21.0 24.9 19.5 23.0
2000 19.7 22.4 19.7 21.2
In-Shell Width (mm) 1989 31.2 32.3 32.7 32.3
1990 31.5 31.9 33.0 32.3
1991 31.1 31.4 31.7 31.5
1992 32.1 32.7 32.6 32.6
1993 32.2 32.4 32.9 32.6
1994 31.4 32.4 32.2 32.2
1995 30.6 31.7 32.0 31.7
1996 31.4 32.5 32.2 32.3
1997 32.3 33.0 31.1 32.3
1998 31.4 32.2 31.5 31.9
1999 31.2 32.6 31.6 32.2
2000 31.5 32.4 32.1 32.2
In-Shell Cross-Width (mm) 1989 32.0 33.0 32.2 32.6
1990 31.6 32.3 32.7 32.4
1991 30.5 31.2 31.2 31.1
1992 32.5 33.1 32.8 32.9
1993 32.0 32.3 32.9 32.5
1994 31.3 32.4 32.3 32.2
1995 30.2 31.3 31.7 31.3
1996 31.4 32.6 32.5 32.5
1997 32.3 33.2 31.9 32.6
1998 31.2 32.1 31.5 31.8
1999 31.6 33.3 31.8 32.7
2000 31.3 33.0 32.6 32.8
In-Shell Length (mm) 1989 38.2 39.1 39.3 39.1
1990 38.5 38.3 39.5 38.8
1991 38.9 39.0 39.1 39.0
1992 39.0 39.7 39.5 39.5
1993 39.9 40.1 39.8 40.0
1994 38.7 39.7 39.3 39.4
1995 39.2 39.0 39.5 39.2
1996 38.4 39.4 38.7 39.0
1997 38.2 39.4 37.6 38.6
1998 39.1 40.0 39.0 39.5
1999 38.3 39.7 38.9 39.4
2000 37.4 38.2 38.4 38.2
Kernel Grade - Percent Sound 1989 94.4 97.8 96.8 97.0
1990 96.1 97.1 95.4 96.3
1991 97.3 96.6 94.1 95.5
1992 93.6 96.9 97.6 96.9
1993 93.2 95.2 97.2 95.8
1994 92.6 94.7 97.5 95.6
1995 89.2 91.4 96.1 93.1
1996 92.6 93.8 95.3 94.4
1997 97.8 97.4 97.3 97.3
1998 79.9 93.2 98.3 94.4
1999 96.8 98.2 97.4 97.9
2000 98.0 96.7 97.0 96.9
Nuts Set Per Tree 1989 1,427 2,182 1,537 1,785
1990 1,637 2,380 1,835 2,028
1991 1,955 2,620 2,210 2,340
1992 1,567 1,902 1,380 1,604
1993 1,530 2,703 1,596 2,068
1994 1,813 1,961 1,602 1,773
1995 1,420 2,253 1,451 1,777
1996 1,362 1,836 1,497 1,630
1997 1,128 2,233 1,439 1,753
1998 1,070 1,654 1,253 1,407
1999 1,355 2,180 1,250 1,709
2000 1,195 1,812 1,204 1,483
1/    Coast includes: Contra Costa, Lake, Monterey, Napa, San Benito, San Luis Obispo, Santa Clara, and
       Sonoma counties.
2/    Sacramento Valley includes: Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Glenn, Sacramento, Solano, Sutter, Tehama,
       Yolo, and Yuba counties.
3/    San Joaquin Valley includes: Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and
       Tulare counties.
4/    District and State averages are derived by weighting county averages by county bearing acreage figures.



TABLE 3 -- Walnut Objective Measurement Survey Data, By Variety
Measurement Year Ashley Chandler Eureka Franquette Hartley Payne Serr Tehama Vina Other
In-Shell Weight (gm) 1989 19.1 24.8 21.0 20.4 24.7 20.4 19.6 21.5 20.1 20.2
1990 19.5 23.2 22.1 19.9 23.7 20.5 20.9 19.8 19.4 20.7
1991 18.7 22.8 20.1 19.2 23.4 18.2 18.7 20.3 18.8 19.9
1992 19.1 24.9 22.3 20.7 25.5 19.4 21.4 21.8 20.5 19.9
1993 19.8 23.5 21.7 21.2 25.2 20.8 20.8 20.3 20.2 21.7
1994 19.3 24.3 20.9 20.3 24.7 19.7 20.0 21.1 19.7 21.0
1995 18.0 20.7 19.1 18.6 23.1 19.5 18.6 18.7 18.4 19.3
1996 20.0 23.3 20.6 20.1 24.8 18.1 19.8 21.2 20.1 21.1
1997 19.8 24.4 23.2 21.1 24.8 20.4 21.3 20.5 20.5 22.2
1998 19.2 21.9 20.8 20.2 24.0 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.2 19.9
1999 20.3 24.9 22.1 20.0 24.6 19.0 20.3 19.1 20.7 20.9
2000 17.5 22.9 21.7 18.3 22.8 18.8 19.3 19.8 19.3 19.9
In-Shell Width (mm) 1989 31.9 33.1 31.2 31.0 33.7 32.1 33.0 32.8 31.3 31.5
1990 32.3 32.8 31.1 30.7 33.1 33.0 34.2 31.4 30.0 31.4
1991 31.4 31.9 30.4 30.0 32.4 31.6 32.7 32.0 29.8 30.3
1992 32.0 33.3 31.6 30.9 33.6 32.3 34.1 33.1 31.3 31.0
1993 32.3 32.5 30.9 31.3 33.2 33.3 33.6 31.5 30.5 31.6
1994 31.8 32.7 30.9 30.8 33.2 32.1 33.3 32.4 30.5 30.8
1995 31.0 31.7 30.6 30.1 32.6 31.9 32.4 31.6 29.7 30.6
1996 31.7 32.4 31.6 31.1 33.0 32.2 33.0 32.3 30.9 31.2
1997 31.8 32.3 30.7 30.6 33.3 31.5 33.3 32.0 31.0 30.8
1998 31.2 31.8 30.2 30.7 33.0 31.4 32.1 31.2 30.6 31.1
1999 30.7 32.8 30.4 31.0 32.8 31.5 32.6 30.9 30.4 31.2
2000 31.0 32.8 31.3 30.6 32.8 32.3 33.1 31.1 30.9 31.0
In-Shell Cross-Width (mm) 1989 31.8 33.9 31.0 31.8 34.1 31.8 32.4 32.6 32.2 32.4
1990 32.3 32.8 31.2 31.1 33.1 32.8 33.4 31.5 31.1 32.3
1991 30.7 32.3 30.5 30.1 32.1 30.7 30.7 31.0 30.2 30.5
1992 32.0 34.3 32.4 31.6 33.9 32.1 33.0 33.0 32.6 32.1
1993 32.2 32.9 31.7 31.4 33.0 33.0 32.7 31.3 30.8 32.1
1994 31.6 33.2 31.4 31.3 33.0 31.9 32.3 31.9 31.6 31.9
1995 30.6 31.7 30.5 30.1 32.1 31.3 30.9 30.7 30.1 31.0
1996 31.7 33.1 32.1 31.5 32.9 32.2 32.1 32.5 32.1 32.3
1997 31.9 33.0 32.2 31.3 33.2 32.0 33.0 32.1 32.1 32.0
1998 31.2 30.9 30.5 31.2 32.5 31.4 31.6 30.8 30.8 31.7
1999 30.8 34.0 31.0 31.2 33.2 31.4 31.9 30.8 31.5 32.0
2000 31.2 33.9 32.0 30.5 33.2 32.7 32.6 31.6 32.0 32.3
In-Shell Length (mm) 1989 37.3 40.8 42.5 38.4 40.1 37.6 38.1 38.8 39.3 39.3
1990 36.9 39.7 42.6 37.5 39.7 38.1 38.9 37.1 37.3 38.4
1991 36.7 39.9 43.3 38.2 39.8 37.2 37.4 36.8 38.6 39.2
1992 37.2 40.5 42.8 37.9 40.6 38.0 38.8 38.3 39.3 38.7
1993 37.5 40.2 42.5 39.6 41.1 39.2 37.7 37.0 38.9 39.8
1994 37.1 40.9 43.0 38.7 40.3 37.9 37.9 38.0 38.6 39.2
1995 36.8 39.6 41.2 38.8 40.1 38.4 37.5 37.8 38.6 38.6
1996 37.0 39.4 41.4 38.6 40.0 37.8 37.3 37.6 38.8 39.2
1997 36.2 39.2 41.0 37.8 39.5 36.6 37.4 37.2 38.1 38.5
1998 37.2 40.0 40.8 39.6 40.9 38.0 37.7 37.7 38.4 39.6
1999 36.9 40.4 42.6 38.2 39.6 38.1 38.5 37.3 38.7 39.5
2000 35.8 39.4 43.0 37.4 38.2 38.2 37.6 36.9 37.3 38.3
Kernel Grade - 1989 97.3 98.3 93.9 97.8 97.5 95.2 97.0 97.2 98.7 96.8
Percent Sound 1990 96.6 99.5 94.2 96.7 97.7 94.5 91.0 98.5 94.1 96.8
1991 91.0 99.9 87.1 97.2 96.1 94.7 94.2 96.7 98.1 98.5
1992 94.7 99.2 96.1 96.7 97.2 95.4 96.5 99.1 98.0 96.9
1993 89.8 99.0 92.5 93.9 97.4 94.0 95.3 94.5 94.9 94.8
1994 91.3 96.6 95.7 95.7 95.3 96.9 96.9 96.4 94.0 97.3
1995 91.6 93.6 93.4 89.8 93.8 95.2 95.6 88.7 92.4 93.5
1996 92.3 95.1 93.4 89.8 95.1 95.4 96.6 92.7 95.8 94.2
1997 96.2 97.8 94.9 96.6 98.1 96.5 97.0 96.7 97.5 96.6
1998 94.4 91.4 99.8 89.5 94.4 96.3 97.9 94.3 95.2 95.2
1999 96.1 98.1 97.1 98.3 98.1 95.0 98.3 96.4 98.2 97.3
2000 95.6 96.7 93.1 97.8 96.4 97.3 97.7 96.4 98.2 97.3
Nuts Set Per Tree 1989 1,338 2,761 2,051 2,411 1,767 1,543 1,603 1,461 1,645 1,877
1990 1,399 2,716 2,058 2,706 2,662 1,648 884 1,683 2,216 1,708
1991 1,372 3,092 3,212 3,116 2,712 2,067 1,553 1,487 2,055 2,161
1992 1,072 1,645 1,585 2,012 2,008 1,487 915 1,082 1,385 1,626
1993 1,147 2,099 1,452 2,532 2,742 1,444 1,626 1,653 1,654 1,818
1994 1,391 1,711 1,905 2,781 1,974 1,540 1,154 1,207 1,619 1,643
1995 1,392 1,912 1,590 2,348 2,284 1,404 984 1,961 1,260 1,157
1996 1,353 1,659 1,296 2,356 1,853 1,285 1,417 958 1,355 1,472
1997 1,406 1,570 1,414 2,162 2,228 1,304 796 1,703 1,894 1,839
1998 1,221 1,306 1,380 1,512 1,457 1,170 1,622 1,347 1,504 1,290
1999 1,073 1,540 1,369 2,818 2,241 1,076 989 1,210 1,374 1,536
2000 1,633 1,212 1,325 1,899 1,878 1,696 886 1,167 1,566 1,379



TABLE 4 -- Percentage Distribution Of Walnut Shell Suture Sizes, By District And Variety
District
And
Variety
U.S. Standards Size Intervals 1/
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Mth Jmb Lge Med Bby Oth Mth Jmb Lge Med Bby Oth Mth Jmb Lge Med Bby Oth Mth Jmb Lge Med Bby Oth Mth Jmb Lge Med Bby Oth
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Percent of Total 2/ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISTRICTS:
Coast 0 47 20 15 17 1 1 62 16 9 12 0 0 46 15 15 21 2 0 39 17 24 17 0 0 49 10 18 20 1
Sacramento Valley 0 65 14 11 9 0 0 73 11 9 6 0 0 62 15 12 10 1 1 65 14 10 8 0 1 58 14 13 11 1
San Joaquin Valley 0 61 18 12 8 0 0 51 14 12 19 4 0 49 19 16 14 1 0 48 19 16 13 3 0 56 19 13 8 0
VARIETIES:
Ashley 0 54 17 13 15 1 0 62 15 9 10 4 0 48 19 12 19 1 0 33 23 20 18 2 0 41 21 13 18 2
Chandler 1 67 16 9 7 0 1 67 11 10 10 1 1 53 20 15 11 0 1 66 15 10 5 0 2 64 14 9 7 0
Eureka 0 49 29 12 10 0 0 36 29 12 20 2 1 23 24 19 32 1 0 19 37 24 17 0 0 38 28 18 9 0
Franquette 0 41 25 17 16 1 0 35 19 21 23 1 0 35 20 24 20 1 0 38 20 23 16 0 0 28 21 28 20 1
Hartley 0 74 12 9 5 0 0 79 9 5 5 1 1 73 12 8 5 1 1 70 12 9 7 0 1 68 11 9 8 0
Payne 0 62 16 11 10 1 0 55 13 12 19 2 0 48 18 17 16 1 0 47 20 14 13 1 0 59 21 10 7 0
Serr 1 75 11 7 5 0 1 75 8 8 7 1 0 62 17 12 8 1 0 68 14 9 7 0 0 73 12 8 5 0
Tehama 0 59 22 11 7 0 0 61 15 11 14 0 0 46 21 13 20 1 0 46 15 10 26 0 0 43 22 14 16 1
Vina 0 38 19 22 20 1 0 45 18 18 15 3 0 32 19 25 23 1 0 26 24 24 22 1 0 33 23 26 15 1
Other 1 46 16 18 18 1 1 43 17 15 18 7 0 39 19 17 24 1 1 41 19 17 20 0 1 35 19 20 21 1
STATE 0 62 16 11 9 0 0 64 13 10 11 2 0 55 17 14 13 1 1 58 16 13 10 0 1 57 16 13 10 1
Number of
Shells Measured



13,242


13,220


14,231


12,753


12,930
1/    Sizes used are as follows: Mammoth -- Larger than 96/64" in diameter; Jumbo -- 80/64" to 96/64";
       Large -- 76/64" to 80/64" for Eureka variety, 77/64" to 80/64" for all other varieties;
       Medium -- 73/64" to 76/64" for Eureka, 73/64" to 77/64" for all others; Baby -- 60/64" to 73/64";
       and Others -- below 60/64".
2/    Percentage distributions based upon nut samples taken in the field, may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.



The California Walnut Industry has been very supportive.
We appreciate your continued cooperation!





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